St. Francis of Assisi, Patron of Peace
Does the military action the U.S. is contemplating against Iraq meet the standards of a just war?
|Date: 3/27/2003 6:25:26 PM|
Name or Pseudonym: Shoshana
Subject: Aftermath in Iraq: SCIRI will be a major.....
This article is from the Welland Tribune and written by Gwynne Dyer/London, UK
I think my friend Pat will appreciate this article, as it is written by one of her own:
AFTERMATH IN IRAQ; SCIRI WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER
"Wimps go to Baghdad, they say in neo-conservative circles in Washington. Real men go to Tehran. It sounds tough at dinner-parties, and the macho intellectuals who talk like that never worry that genuinely hard men can overhear their silly chatter. But they can, and they are already taking measures to protect themselves. They live in Iran.
Irans Islamist governement is split between the moderate reformers around President Mohammed Khatemi and the radical mullahs around Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but it is the mullas who control the army and foreign policy. They are terrified by the imminent arrival of the US army on Irans western frontier, only a couple hours drive from the countrys biggest oilfields, especially since President Bush has put Iran on his axis of evil hit-list. So the more trouble the US has in Iraq, the better.
The biggest problem facing an American occupation regime in Iraq is the fact that the Sunni Arab minority, only 17% of the population, has dominated the governement and the army for generations. The Shia Arabs have been largely excluded from power and are relatively poor, but they are almost two-thirds of the population and in a democratic Iraq they would automatically dominate the government. The problem is that their sympathies lie with their fellow Shias in Iran, and a pro-Iranian government in Baghdad is not exactly what the US had inb mind as an outcome to the war.
That prospect, even more than the threat of Kurdish seperatism, is why the US has frozen the exiled Iraqui opposition parties out of the post-war administration of Iraq. In the initial stages the US intends to rule Iraq through its own military governement, replacing the top two layers of the existing civil administration with American generals and colonels. Since the administration is overwhelmingly Sunni, the Kurds and the Shia Arabs will be largely frozen out again--and the Shia will be especially unhappy about that.
The first President Bush incited both the Kurds of the northern Iraq and the Shia of the south to revolt against Saddam Hussein at the end ot the 1991 Gulf War, but both groups were betrayed when US forces did not support them. The Kurds managed to hold on to most of the traditional Kurdish areas of northern Iraq and have been free from Saddam Husseins control for the past dozen years--but the Shia in the south were massacred and utterly crushed.
Thousands of Iraqi Shia fled across the frontier into Iran, where the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq took responsibility for their lives. SCIRI was founded 20 years ago at the height of the Iran-Iraq war under the patronage of the Islamic revolutionary government in Iran. It is led by Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, who lives in exile in Tehran, and its purpose is to bring about an Islamic revolution, not a secular democracy, in Iraq.
SCIRI has an extensive underground network of support in the Shia parts of the Iraq, and it has all the resources of the Iranian state behind them.
The Badr Division, an army of up to 10,000 Shia fighters recruited from Iraqi refugees, has been poised just across the border for years. SCIRI has no intention of allowing the United States to rule over Iraq even for a day: it will resist, and it will do so in a distinctly Shia way.
Islamists of the Shia persuasion, though bitterly hostile to Sunni extremists like Al-Qaeda, are equally adept at violence. The very first suicide truck bomb, the one that killed 242 US Marines in a Beirut barracks in 1983 and caused the rapid withdrawal of American troups from Lebanon, was a Shia innovation, and it was the Shia guerilla organization Hizbollah that forced the chaotic Israeli retreat from southern Lebanon in 2000. But an even greater threat to the American occupation of Iraq is the Shia tradition of martyrdom.
The Iranian revolution of 1978 was in some ways a precursor to the wave of non-violent democratic revolutions that has transformed the world in the past couple of decades, but it had a special Shia twist. Every 40 days the unarmed crowds came out on the streets in mourning for the last group of non-violent protestors killed by the Shahs army, taunting his soldiers to kill again. The soldiers did kill, time after time, with the civilians almost willingly submitting to martyrdom--until the Iranian army finally grew sick of so much blood and abandoned the American-backed monarch.
It was extraordinarily effective tactic, and within months of the inevitable American victory we will probably be seeing it again in all the Shi cities of the southern Iraq. It may even spread to Baghdad, a once Sunni-dominated city where the poorer quarters east of the river are now overwhelmingly Shia.
American troups will not respond with the clumsy and murderous tactics of the Shahs army, for their leaders have all been taught more sophisticated methods of crowd control. But there wil also be terrorism, and given US paranoia about terrorists and the Bush administrations tendency to lump all its Arab and Muslim enemies together, the Shia extremists may get what they are seeking sooner or later. One massacre, and then they are in business.
SCRIs leaders are moving back into Iraq now. Two years from now, they will either will be ruling Iraq or struggling to break away from it (and take most of the oil with them).
(GWYNNE DYER IS A LONDON-BASED INDEPENDANT JOURNALIST WHOSE ARTICLES ARE PUBLISHED IN 45 COUNTRIES).
PS is he one of your journalists in the good ol US??